AGP Executive Report

Sahel Security & Rights: A US$2.3m “non-lethal” military package to Niger’s junta landed despite Human Rights Watch documenting a January 2026 drone strike that killed 17 civilians, raising questions on safeguards and accountability. Regional Diplomacy: Benin’s new President Romuald Wadagni visited Niger and Burkina Faso to reset ties, including a push to reopen the Niger–Benin border and coordinate against jihadist threats. Terror Financing & Gold: A new analysis argues Sahel wars are increasingly funded through gold belts in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, where armed groups tax and run artisanal mining—while proof gaps complicate claims about state backers. Senate Contractor Debts: Nigeria’s Senate set up a six-member committee to liaise with the Finance Ministry to clear unpaid contractor liabilities, with claims put at ₦3–₦4tn. Food Security Finance (Niger): Niger State lawmakers approved a N20.4bn loan for an irrigated 3,000-hectare farm under the Saudi EXIM line. Education Disruption: Nigeria’s school security crisis worsened, with unions and lawmakers calling it a national emergency as abductions keep disrupting learning. Fuel Market Watch (Nigeria): Dangote Refinery cut/adjusted petrol pricing again amid a renewed price war with depot operators. Hajj Logistics: Flynas began airlifting Ogun and Kebbi pilgrims back to Nigeria from June 4. Local Crime (Niger): A private security guard in Minna allegedly abducted his employer’s two six-year-old sons, with ransom demands reported.

Fuel Pricing Battle: Dangote Refinery cut its ex-depot petrol price to N1,252/litre to match depot operators as a fresh price war reshapes Nigeria’s downstream market. Regional Diplomacy: Benin’s new president Romuald Wadagni made Niger his first foreign stop, pushing for border reopening and tighter anti-jihad cooperation with Niamey. Sahel Security & Trade: Nigeria’s Senate urged a national approach to insecurity after school abductions, while Mali reported a bus hitting a land mine on the Bamako–Kayes highway amid rising JNIM activity. Education Under Threat: Insecurity is disrupting access to schooling for tens of millions of pupils in Nigeria, with closures and kidnappings worsening the crisis. Niger State Finance: Niger State lawmakers approved a N20.4bn loan for a 3,000-hectare irrigated food security project under the Saudi EXIM Line of Finance. Local Safety Incident: A private security guard in Minna allegedly abducted his employer’s two children, prompting police confirmation and ransom demands. Energy Logistics: With the Hormuz crisis rerouting shipping, Lomé’s port is positioned to gain from shifting maritime flows.

Public Finance & Food Security: Niger State lawmakers have approved Governor Umaru Mohammed Bago’s N20.4bn loan request to expand the Niger Food Security Systems and Logistics Company, backed by a UBA bank guarantee under the Saudi EXIM Line of Finance; the $14.45m facility runs 84 months with an 18-month grace period and will fund a 3,000-hectare irrigated farm estate in Paikoro. Security & Kidnapping: In Minna, a private security guard is accused of abducting two six-year-old children after taking them out for Sallah; police say the case has been referred to SCID. Crime & Trade Impact: A trader in Suleja, Niger State, was killed in a midnight attack as assailants broke into his home, stole valuables, and left one wife injured—another reminder of insecurity’s toll on local commerce. Regional Diplomacy: Benin’s new president Romuald Wadagni made Niamey his first foreign stop, signaling a potential thaw after years of strained ties with Niger’s junta. Energy & Grid Reliability: TCN extended maintenance on the Jos-Bauchi-Gombe 330kV line through June 30 to complete OPGW works, with limited supply for some areas and full outages for others during daily work hours. Humanitarian Risk & Migration: An international NGO warns Libya’s trafficking networks still extort and detain Gambians, urging authorities to dismantle the system and release detainees. Business & Investment Signals: Savannah Energy reported $104.1m revenue in its first four months of 2026, with cash collections up 48% and trade receivables down 22%, driven by improved Nigerian operations.

Road & Connectivity: Niger State defends road contracts totalling 1,000km+ as compliant with procurement law, citing flyovers, underpasses and ongoing Bida Ring Road works, while a separate report highlights progress on Nigeria’s Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway (1,068km) with completion rates varying by section and expected economic gains for farmers, traders and tourism. Energy & Power Reliability: Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) extends maintenance on the Jos–Bauchi–Gombe 330kV line to June 30, with scheduled outages affecting several northern states; another TCN notice warns of blackouts linked to work on the Mando–Kumbotso corridor, testing public confidence in grid improvements. Oil & Gas Finance: Savannah Energy reports $104.1m revenue in four months (up 17% y/y) and a 48% jump in cash collections to $183.5m, alongside reduced trade receivables—signals of tighter cash discipline in Nigeria. Uranium & Nuclear Markets: A 2026 uranium outlook links Small Modular Reactors and AI-driven power demand to a reshaped demand curve and front-loaded fuel needs. Security & Trade Risks: DSS arrests five suspects tied to the Papiri St. Mary’s school abduction in Niger State; NDLEA also reports major drug and ammunition seizures, including ketamine/ecstasy hidden in imported water purifiers and military-grade bullets in Kaduna. Governance & Investment Climate: AfDB-backed reforms gain support from African deposit and investment funds to boost domestic savings and cut reliance on external financing, while Niger’s growth outlook remains positive in AfDB’s Africa Economic Outlook (Niger cited at 6.9%). Business Recognition: Olam Agri wins two Ghana Manufacturing Awards, including flour and agro-processing, with exports reaching Niger and other Sahel markets.

Security Crackdown: Nigeria’s DSS says it has arrested five suspects linked to the St. Mary’s Catholic School abduction in Papiri, Niger State, with raids targeting alleged logistics and even two foreign nationals. Drug & Arms Interdiction: NDLEA seized ketamine (3kg) and MDMA/“ecstasy” (199g) hidden in imported water purifiers from the Netherlands to Lagos, while Kaduna operations netted 380 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition and 1.246 tonnes of cannabis; Niger State also saw 457kg of cannabis recovered. Power & Grid Reliability: TCN announced a planned outage for emergency maintenance on the Mando–Kumbotso 330kV line, affecting Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Bauchi, Yobe and parts of Niger Republic. Development Finance: African deposit and investment funds endorsed AfDB’s push to reform Africa’s financial architecture under NAFAD, aiming to mobilise domestic savings and cut external financing dependence, with Niger’s deposit fund manager backing the plan. Regional Trade & Logistics: Ghana’s Finance Minister says Takoradi Port will serve as the Sahel corridor, with plans for rail to Hamile to reduce road damage from heavy trucks carrying goods from Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Economic Outlook: AfDB’s Africa Economic Outlook 2026 flags Africa as a fast-growing region, with Niger projected to grow 6.9% in 2026. Humanitarian & Social Impact: Human Appeal released its “Thrive with Dignity” 2025 report, citing support for 7.3 million people across 30 countries.

Energy & Power Reliability: TCN announced a planned seven-hour shutdown of the Mando–Kumbotso 330kV line for emergency maintenance, expected to trigger blackouts in Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Bauchi and Yobe, with spillover effects for parts of Niger Republic that depend on Nigeria’s grid. Oil & Fiscal Flows: NNPC reported April revenue up 79.2% month-on-month to N4.971tn and Profit After Tax rising to N481bn, alongside higher crude/condensate output and statutory remittances climbing to N3.714tn. Drug & Arms Crackdown: NDLEA seized 380 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition in Kaduna and arrested a couple linked to 1.246 tonnes of cannabis; it also uncovered ketamine and Ecstasy hidden in water purifier machines imported from the Netherlands. Regional Trade Infrastructure: Ghana’s Finance Minister said Takoradi Port will be the Sahel cargo corridor, with plans for a rail line to Hamile to reduce road damage from heavy trucks. Governance & Investment Climate: Ogun State placed second in Nigeria’s 2025 Phillips Consulting State Performance Index, citing stronger infrastructure, industrial growth and governance reforms. Security & Livelihoods: Eid-el-Kabir ram dealers in Borno, especially Maiduguri markets, reported heavy losses after weak sales and economic hardship left many animals unsold. Africa Finance Push: African deposit and investment funds backed AfDB’s NAFAD push to mobilise domestic resources and cut reliance on external financing.

State Performance Index: Ogun State was ranked Nigeria’s 2nd best-performing state in the 2025 State Performance Index (pSPI), behind Lagos, with Kaduna, Adamawa and Niger following—an endorsement of governance, growth and resident wellbeing under Gov. Dapo Abiodun. Energy & Transport Trade: Nigeria’s NNPC reported April revenue up 79.2% to ₦4.971tn and Profit After Tax rising to ₦481bn, supported by higher crude output; separately, Ghana’s Finance Minister said Takoradi Port will be the main Sahel cargo corridor, with a rail link planned to move goods for landlocked Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Fuel Prices: Nigeria’s average petrol price rose 18.97% in April to ₦1,532.93/litre, while diesel jumped 50.16% to ₦2,474.69/litre. Security & Business Disruption: NDLEA seized ketamine and MDMA hidden in water purifier machines shipped from the Netherlands to Lagos, arrested suspects in Kaduna, and recovered skunk and military-grade ammunition; meanwhile, TCN announced a planned blackout affecting Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, parts of Bauchi and Yobe and parts of Niger Republic. AfCFTA Trade Push: The Biashara Afrika 2026 forum in Lomé shifted AfCFTA talk toward practical trade and investment measures. Niger Focus: Niger State also appears in the pSPI ranking and in NDLEA’s Niger raid context, while Niger’s food inflation figure is highlighted as negative in global comparisons.

Security & Cost of Living: Niger State’s security commissioner says the government has identified trust and information-sharing gaps, including “compromised” informants, and is rolling out a framework to restore confidence between communities and security agencies. Fuel Prices: Nigeria’s NBS reports petrol (PMS) averaged ₦1,532.93/litre in April 2026, up 18.97% from March and 23.69% year-on-year—while diesel jumped 50.16% month-on-month. Niger Investment Push: Niger State secured an extra $684m from a consortium of Chinese firms for basic infrastructure tied to special agro-industrial processing zones, alongside a $163m IDB solar deal aimed at 24-hour power for 189 communities. AfCFTA Trade Momentum: At Biashara Afrika 2026 in Lomé, AfCFTA partners shifted from talk to practical cross-border trade and investment steps, with SMEs and entrepreneurs positioned at the centre. Startups & Local Capital: A roundup highlights African startups increasingly funded by local investors to tackle gaps in healthcare, finance, security, logistics and banking access. Education Under Siege: Coverage renews focus on Nigeria’s school kidnappings, including recent attacks where children remain unaccounted for weeks after abductions.

Niger Investment & Industry: Niger secured an extra $684m from Chinese firms for basic infrastructure across five special agro-industrial processing zones, alongside a $163m IDB deal for a first solar project to power 189 communities for 24 hours, while the state also announced a no-tax offer for firms setting up solar cell manufacturing. Sahel Security & Diplomacy: The U.S. Embassy in Niamey handed over nine containers of military equipment to Niger’s armed forces logistics centre, as Washington seeks to counter terrorism and kidnapping amid growing Russia-linked influence in the Sahel. Energy Prices (Regional Cost Pressure): Nigeria’s NBS reported petrol averaging ₦1,532.93/litre in April (+18.97% month-on-month; +23.69% year-on-year), with Niger State among the cheaper states—while diesel jumped sharply, keeping transport and production costs under pressure. Local Governance & Accountability: Niger State’s Government Day Secondary School, Diko, was reported to still be in ruins despite N457.6m budget allocation and claims of N400m payment, with calls for anti-corruption investigations. Food & Daily Life: A global comparison showed Niger’s food inflation at -15.2%, contrasting with steep increases elsewhere—highlighting how uneven price pressures remain across the region. Security Trust Framework: Niger State also moved to close a trust and informant-sharing gap in its security framework, aiming to protect confidentiality and improve intelligence flow.

Sahel Security: The U.S. Embassy in Niamey says it delivered $2.3m in military equipment to Niger’s armed forces, as Washington seeks to counter Russia’s growing influence after the AES shift. Fuel Costs: Nigeria’s petrol price jumped to about N1,532.93 per litre in April 2026, while household kerosene averaged N2,976.94/litre—both adding pressure to transport and household budgets. Education Under Fire: Reports say nearly 600 students have been kidnapped since Tinubu took office, with fresh school abductions underscoring how insecurity is disrupting schooling and local economies. Niger Development & Accountability: A civic tech report alleges Niger State paid N400m+ for a school renovation but the school remains in ruins, raising corruption and service-delivery concerns. Uranium Market: Analysts flag a structural uranium price shift, with term benchmarks rising toward triple digits—important for Niger’s uranium-linked projects and investor planning. Agriculture & Inputs: Farmers in Niger State warn rising fuel and input costs may shrink planting and worsen food insecurity.

Fuel & Farming Pressure in Niger State: Rising petrol and diesel costs are pushing smallholder farmers to delay planting or shrink farm sizes, as tractors, irrigation and transport get more expensive and input prices stay high, with some also avoiding loans after last season’s weak produce prices. Uranium Market Signal: A new outlook says uranium prices are shifting structurally higher, with long-term benchmarks moving into the triple digits and procurement teams bracing for tighter supply contracting. Niger–China Trade Deepening: China’s expanded zero-tariff access for imports from 53 African countries could reshape Niger’s oil-linked financing and export prospects, as Beijing’s state firms deepen involvement in the sector. Local Education Accountability: A civic tech report alleges Niger State paid N400m for Government Day Secondary School Diko renovation but the school remains in ruins, urging anti-corruption probes into missing or unstarted works. Corporate Security in Niger: Orano faces trial in Paris over alleged negligence after workers were abducted at its Niger uranium operations in 2010, spotlighting corporate responsibility in high-risk zones. Uranium Project Update: Global Atomic says Niger’s military-led government renewed support for its Dasa uranium project after meetings in Niamey and a site visit.

Education Accountability: TrackaNG says Niger State’s Government Day Secondary School, Diko (Gurara LGA) remains in ruins despite claims of N400m paid and N457.6m allocated in the 2025 budget, calling for anti-corruption investigations into missing renovation funds. Security & Rights: USCIRF warns Nigeria is in a “terrifying crisis,” citing fear, killings, abductions and mass violence against civilians and religious communities, while also alleging collusion risks around Fulani militant attacks. Terrorism Watch: Nextier says the killing of ISWAP commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki may trigger fresh threats across Nigeria’s North-East and Lake Chad region. Local Policing: Niger State Police arrested 27 suspected hoodlums in raids ahead of Eid-el-Kabir, recovering weapons and suspected drugs. Mining & Investment (Niger): Global Atomic says Niger’s military-led government renewed backing for its Dasa uranium project after meetings in Niamey, as the state seeks stronger mining investment and export links. Youth Service Rules: NYSC DG Olakunle Nafiu reiterates corps members are not exempt from Nigeria’s social media and cyberbullying laws. Eid Economy (Nigeria): Rising hardship in Ilorin pushes some families into buying Eid rams on credit.

Uranium & Trade Corridor: Niger’s military-led government renewed political backing for Global Atomic’s Dasa uranium project, with officials visiting the site and pushing for stronger mining investment and an export corridor with Algeria. Eid Security: Niger State Police arrested 27 suspected hoodlums in raids across Suleja ahead of Eid-el-Kabir, recovering weapons and suspected drugs. Humanitarian Relief: The Aliko Dangote Foundation, with Niger State, distributed 25,000 bags of 10kg rice to vulnerable households across all 25 LGAs to cushion Eid hardship. Eid & Peace Messaging: Niger’s Catholic bishops urged Muslims and Christians to deepen peace and solidarity, praying for security across Niger and the Sahel. Local Business & Jobs: Fidelity Bank reported 38% growth in gross earnings to N434.95bn in Q1 2026, with assets rising to N11.35tn and deposits to N7.38tn. Innovation & Environment: A Nigerien teen’s “Pantipads” project turns agricultural waste into biodegradable sanitary pads, shortlisted for the 2026 Earth Prize. Policy & Governance: A court ordered INEC to amend its 2027 election timetable to match the Electoral Act’s timelines for party registers and candidate substitutions.

Banking Results: Fidelity Bank says gross earnings jumped 37.9% to N434.95bn in Q1 2026, with net profit at N74.47bn and assets rising to N11.35tn. Eid & Household Pressure: In Ilorin, families are reportedly buying Eid rams on credit as prices soar and incomes shrink, pushing some into interest-linked deals. Security & Policing: Niger State police arrested 27 suspected hoodlums ahead of Eid-el-Kabir after raids in Suleja, recovering weapons and suspected cannabis. Political Process: The ADC postponed collation of its 2027 presidential primary results to allow Eid observance; Atiku leads in 22 states and the FCT, while Amaechi rejects the outcome. Elections Court Ruling: A Federal High Court ordered INEC to amend its 2027 election timetable to match the Electoral Act’s timelines. Humanitarian/Business Link: Dangote Foundation, with Niger State, distributed 25,000 bags of rice to vulnerable households ahead of Eid. Regional Trade/Investment: Niger State urged Dangote and other investors to explore crude oil opportunities in the Bida Basin. Insecurity Outlook: A US report claims about 30,000 armed Fulani militants are operating across Nigeria, driving deadly attacks and displacement.

Eid-el-Kabir Security Push: Nigeria’s police have ordered tighter patrols across the FCT and Niger State ahead of the holiday, warning officers against misconduct and urging stronger police-community ties. Election Court Clash: A Federal High Court in Abuja ordered INEC to amend its 2027 election timetable, saying the commission’s deadlines for party membership registers and candidate substitutions don’t match the Electoral Act. Opposition Primaries Heat Up: ADC presidential primary results put Atiku in front after winning 22 states and the FCT, but Rotimi Amaechi rejected the process as “concocted,” while Niger State’s ADC governorship ticket went to Mohammed Kpautagi. Humanitarian Relief in Niger: Dangote Foundation, with Niger State, distributed 25,000 bags of 10kg rice to vulnerable households ahead of Eid. Insecurity Warning: A US report claims about 30,000 armed Fulani militants are operating across Nigeria, driving deadly attacks and deepening religious tensions. Business & Cost Pressure: Diesel price swings and rising food costs continue to ripple into transport and everyday prices.

Security & Society: Nigeria’s school abduction horror keeps widening, with survivors in Oyo blaming delayed help on poor internet access, while a wider pattern of attacks is framed as insurgents trying to “kill education.” Counterterror Pressure: The Operation Hadin Kai warns Eid-el-Kabir crowds across the North-East to expect possible attacks, urging people to avoid big gatherings and report suspicious activity. Crime Crackdown: In Yobe, police say they’ve busted a motorcycle-snatching syndicate, recovering stolen bikes after arrests in Fika and Jakusko. Food & Prices: UN warnings that nearly 35 million Nigerians may face acute hunger between June and August 2026 are driving fresh political fire, with Atiku calling it a man-made humanitarian crisis. Inclusion & Livelihoods: In Niger State, PWDs under FGN/IFAD-VCDP pledge to drop negative stereotypes as training boosts rice and cassava farming. Trade Shock: India’s soymeal export contracts reportedly got cancelled after a 41% jump in local soybean prices—pushing traders to look toward African supplies. Infrastructure Finance: Abu Dhabi Fund for Development reports progress on African roads, including Nigeria’s Minna–Bida project.